World Cup 2022: The Group Stage So Far

We're well into this World Cup, with every team having played twice, so it's a good time to take stock and see what might happen in the next set of games, ahead of the knockout rounds. I also thought I'd look at which of my predictions have already been proven wrong, because it's always fun to point out your own failures in public!

How are my predictions looking?

In my previous post I said France would go out in the first round, as every other European holder has done since 2002. This has not proved accurate. I can say that I was predicting it because no one ever predicts the holders to go out before the knockout rounds, but of course, that's a recent phenomenon and it's hard to argue convincingly without knowing more about what's happening within the team. I think each of the previous times it happened, the team was in crisis or the rest of the world had caught up to its tactics... but it's still interesting how often it happened.

Also, I did admirably cover my ass by saying I wouldn't be surprised if they bucked the trend this year, so good job me! I do still think that they won't go on to win the whole thing again, because a) it hasn't happened since 1962, and b) they haven't faced a strong team yet. 

My prediction about the US was also based on precedent rather than a sober assessment of the squad's strengths and weaknesses. On the other hand, they maintained their unbeaten World Cup record against England, so it's still possible that they'll get past Iran with a win and go out in the next round. We'll find out tomorrow!

England's also as good as through to the next round, which I think was an easy prediction to make. The only thing that could derail them is getting tonked by Wales and the US-Iran result being crazy too, but with respect to Wales, I don't think they're good enough. I still suspect England has a good path to the final, as well.

My prediction about this being Brazil or Argentina's year looks to be favoring Brazil. Though in my heart of hearts I still think it's going to a top-5 European side (England, France, Germany or Spain, with not-qualified Italy being the last of the 5). On current form France looks the side to beat, but as per my prediction above, England has the cohesion, if not the technical wizardry or speed, to go far, like they did in Euro 2020.

Finally, my prediction about home field advantage has been half right. I suggested Saudi Arabia and Iran wouldn't benefit from the proximity, but both have notched some impressive wins (especially the Saudi win over Argentina). I also suggested Tunisia and Morocco would benefit, and Morocco has indeed won against Belgium, which is a good result. Tunisia's only picked up a point so far, and plays France next, which probably won't result in more than a draw.

Western Europe vs the World

As I've watched the matches, I've also been tracking the performance of Western European teams against the rest of the world. I want to write a longer post about this, but the short version is: I was inspired by reading the latest edition of Soccernomics by Simon Kuper and Stefan Szymanski, in which they note the region's structural advantage over the rest of the world (including Eastern Europe). The most eye-opening stat from that section is that in 2006, the most recent World Cup held in Western Europe, the only Western European team to "lose" against a team from elsewhere was Switzerland, which lost its penalty shootout against Ukraine.

I should be clear here and note that Kuper and Szymanski actually refer to "core Europe", which can either mean the top leagues of England, Germany, Italy and Spain, or the founding members of the EU (Italy, West Germany, France, Belgium, the Netherlands but excluding Luxembourg). Their naming excludes teams from the edges of Western Europe, like Scandinavia, Wales and even England, but they also note that teams who play in the big leagues are favored. At the same time, Portugal is technically a small country at the margins of Western Europe but has nonetheless contributed a lot to Western Europe's dominant style, so the definition can be fluid.

However you define it, the region hasn't been as dominant since 2006, especially because of the holder's curse and the fact that Italy has failed to reach the round of 16 or even qualify since that tournament. But its ratio of wins (with ties counting as half a win) has actually grown since its lowest point in 2010, and I expect that trend to continue this year.

Scoreless draws

As a final point, there's been a lot of talk on the podcasts about scoreless draws in the group stage. So far there have been five, compared with just one in 2018, five in 2014 (for the entire group stage), six in 2010 and five in 2006. They addressed it on Totally Football, where someone noted that there were so few in 2018 because that was the first time the video-assistant referee (VAR) was used, so it picked up a lot more edge cases that in previous years wouldn't have resulted in penalties. 

Counting them up just now indicates that, rather than shooting up to unprecedented levels, the number of scoreless draws has returned to its historical average. This could mean players have gotten used to VAR and aren't conceding as many penalties as in 2018, which was remarked as having quite a high number. Still, it's impressive that so many games have ended scoreless after just two match days, compared with the same number at the end of the group stage in three of the last four tournaments.

I hope to be able to revisit these predictions at the end of the week, when the group stage finishes, and possibly offer a few more predictions for the knockout stages. In the meantime, I'm trying to decide whether or not to wake up early for the matches that will be at 7am - I tried to get up at 5am for the England-Iran match and regretted it, but 7 should be easier...

World Cup 2022: A Party Pooped

The World Cup in Qatar has begun! For better or worse.

I'm always excited, because the World Cup is my favorite thing in the world (ahead of the European Championships, of course). When else do I get to be patriotic about being Italian...? Eh? Oh, right, Italy may never show up again.

Well, in that case, when else do I get to be patriotic about being American, without a bunch of armed fascists getting excited too? The USMNT has become a good vehicle for soft power in recent years, because they play football the way it ought to be played, according to the English (badly but with a lot of heart), and because this is one of those rare instances where they're Just Another Country and not the undisputed world leaders. Some favorite matches recently have been the ones where the US got knocked out, because they fought heroically until the bitter end. I'm looking forward to more of that this year.

On the other hand, there's the whole backdrop to this particular World Cup. Sure, there are the accusations of worker mistreatment and oppression of women and minorities in the host country, Qatar. Those would be bad enough on their own. But then there's also the dodgy way in which this tournament was awarded: no less a personage than former FIFA president Sepp Blatter has suggested that it was "a bad choice".

He could have raised these concerns in 2010, perhaps before his organization voted to award it there on the same day they awarded the 2018 tournament to Russia, but hey: who needs moral courage, eh?

(As for Russia: kinda embarrassing that they can't be there this month because of invading a neighbor, and also, maybe they should have had 2018 hosting duties taken away after the first invasion in 2014? I dunno)

Still, the tournament has gone ahead, despite the misgivings of almost everyone, so let's look at some positives: the hosts lost the first match in abject fashion! A friend of mine on Facebook predicted a 4-0 blowout by Ecuador, which sadly didn't happen. But it was kinda vindicating to see such a bad performance from the team that's only ever managed to qualify by hosting. If they continue to play like this, it'll be a really open group, at least for Ecuador, the Netherlands and Senegal.

The result also sits in sharp relief when you consider that Qatar are the reigning champions of Asia, while Ecuador are the fourth-best team from South America present in this World Cup. Maybe instead of bullying countries to build expensive and useless stadia, FIFA should be addressing that competitive gap?

On the other, other hand: I do appreciate that this is the first World Cup held in the Arab world. There are a lot of fans in that region, and it's great that they can host this big party for the world. I want to be clear that any criticisms I have of the 2022 World Cup are aimed squarely at FIFA and the local organizers and the government of Qatar, whose treatment of women, LGBTQ people, migrant workers and dissidents is shocking and dystopian. But given how despotic the Qatari regime is (and let's also remember that neighboring Saudi Arabia is worse), is it fair to tar all Qatari citizens or residents with that same brush?

That's why I couldn't find the heart to laugh at the crestfallen locals in the stands for today's match. They may benefit from their country's unequal system, but in the end the people showing up in the regular seats (these folks weren't in the executive boxes or anything) just want to have something enjoyable in their lives, and I can't begrudge them that. This may be the only chance a lot of them get to see World Cup football live, or to mix with so many football fans from all over the world, so they should be allowed to enjoy it (I won't be sad if Qatar do go out in the first round, of course).

I don't know if I'll be blogging on the cup every day for this tournament, but I'll hopefully be able to come up with some clever insights at regular intervals until the final on 18 December. In the meantime, I'll leave you with some predictions, based on how things have gone in previous tournaments:

• France is going to get eliminated in the first round, as Germany, Spain, Italy and, well, France themselves have before them. Since the turn of the millennium Brazil's been the only holder to reach the round of 16, and I expect this trend to continue, primarily because no one else is talking about the trend (538 rates France as fourth most likely to win, which is similar to what they said about Germany four years ago). That said, with all the injuries plaguing the France squad this year, I also wouldn't be surprised if they pull together and buck the trend.
• The US is going to continue their own trend of doing well when the World Cup is not held in Europe. In this case, "doing well" means getting past the group stage, but I don't expect them to get past the round of 16.
• I've got England tipped to do well, which in this case means reaching the final (!). Playing with the various predictors, if England win their group, they should have a relatively easy path to the final. This is predicated on things not blowing up for them along the way, but oddly enough I don't think the other European powerhouses (Spain and Germany) have enough to go all the way.
• This could very well be Brazil or Argentina's year, unless it isn't. Going by the relative strengths of their matchups, I have them meeting in the semifinal and Brazil beating England. But since most of the other predictions I've seen have Brazil winning, I'm starting to qualify this prediction somewhat (538 predicted Brazil was most likely to win in 2014 and 2018 as well).
• The traditional boost to the host country's neighbors won't benefit other Asian teams, like Australia, Japan or South Korea, but I expect it to benefit North African teams, like Tunisia or Morocco. I don't think Saudi Arabia or Iran are well-loved in Qatar (the former tried to blockade the country a few years ago), so I would be surprised if either benefited from much home support. Though it's easier for Saudi or Iranian fans to get there than it will be for 2026, when the World Cup will be held here...

Anyway, those are my predictions, based on nothing more than what's happened before. I've hedged as much as I could, so if any prove to be wrong I'll be able to say I was just talking about probabilities. I'll try and offer some updated predictions when the group stage ends, so that I'll have another chance to look clever.

In the meantime, I'm hoping for both a fun festival of football, and some massive embarrassment to FIFA that will cause the entire executive committee to resign in shame and give us a governing body we deserve. This is, of course, the least likely of my predictions to come true, so take everything I've said for what it's worth.

RIP Kevin Conroy

I was heartbroken yesterday to see that Kevin Conroy, who voiced Batman in the 90s cartoon Batman: The Animated Series, has died at the age of 66. His Batman wasn't the first on-screen version I encountered: that would be Adam West, and then Michael Keaton. But I have to join the chorus of commentators who said he was the best, because he really was.

Of course, I didn't know anything about the actor for the longest time. At some point in the 90s, when watching the Animated Series, I caught on that the guy playing Batman was named Kevin Conroy. Later, when I came back to the Bruce Timm DCAU with Justice League, I was happy to see that they'd kept the same actor. About that time I discovered that he played Batman in the Arkham City video game (alongside none other than Mark Hamill as the Joker!), and even played an older, live-action, Bruce Wayne in the CW's Batwoman, for one of the Arrowverse's yearly crossovers.

I still didn't know anything about his personal life, at least until I saw that he'd written a story for DC's Pride 2022. That issue, by the way, is available for free on DC Universe Infinite (you have to create an account but you can navigate away from the subscription page, if all you want is the Pride issue). Conroy's story talks about how growing up as a gay man in the 1970s and 80s prepared him for the role of Batman. And honestly, it's a great story, taking in the horror and uncertainty of navigating his personal life and his acting career while watching AIDS decimate his circle of friends and colleagues.

The fact that he got the part of Batman, and made it his own the way he did, is also a testament to WB's legendary voice director Andrea Romano, who cast the DCAU shows and loads more besides. She's always shown a knack for finding actors who, on paper, you'd think have nothing to do with the role, but then have made it unthinkable that someone else could ever play that character. Mark Hamill as the Joker is probably her masterstroke, but Kevin Conroy as Batman is her major triumph in the DCAU, because he was the most important part of its very first show.

There are a lot of great Batman moments from the DCAU, both from Batman TAS and Justice League. But if I had to pick a favorite, it's from Justice League Unlimited, where Batman (and Kevin Conroy) showed off an impressive set of pipes:

Condolences to Kevin's family and friends. It's sad that we've lost him, but even if I knew nothing about the actor, he brought to life my favorite version of one of my favorite characters. And that means a part of him will get to live on, whenever we watch Heart of Ice, Mask of the Phantasm, or even just this JLU episode, This Little Piggy.