To say I'm un-pleased about Italy crashing out of the World Cup qualifying playoffs this week is a gross understatement. Not that I'm raging or weeping and gnashing my teeth, but the idea that my team won't be there for the second tournament running has grabbed hold of me and won't let me go.
The main thing is Italy is now officially in the worst run of form for a previous winner. Since winning in 2006, Italy has gone out of the group stage twice (2010, 2014) and failed to qualify for two (2018 and now 2022). The previous worst showing over the four tournaments after a win was England's: after winning in 1966, they went out in the quarterfinal in 1970, failed to qualify in 1974 and 1978, then topped their group in 1982 before going out in the second group stage. Most other winners have won the tournament again within the next four attempts, but none have been so abjectly bad.
It's still too early to tell what the records for Germany (2014) and France (2018) will be for the equivalent period, but Spain has already had a better showing in the two tournaments since it won in 2010. But the thing that worries me the most is how inconsistent Italy have been, because their record in the European Championships has been miles ahead.
In 2008 Italy came second in their group because France was even worse than them, and went out on penalties to eventual winners Spain. In 2012 Italy smashed Germany en route to the final, where they were in turn humiliated by Spain 4-0. In 2016 Italy won its group, finally won a game against Spain in the second round and then went out on penalties to Germany in the quarterfinal. And then, of course, they won the 2020/1 tournament, beating England on penalties after having dominated in the group stage and seeing off the likes of Belgium and Spain (again).
There doesn't seem to be an easy explanation for this Jekyll-and-Hyde record. The qualifying process for world and Euro championships isn't too different, so why should Italy be so bad in one and not the other? Italy's weak goalscoring record has been mentioned by some journalists, and it's true that the team that faced North Macedonia this week was missing several key players. It could just be that this was an unlucky break, as happens at times, though these sorts of failures can stack on one another and influence future performance.
If Italy manages to qualify for 2026, it will have been 12 years since their last appearance in the tournament. There will be almost no one in the squad with the experience of playing at that level, while those in the management team will be well aware of the past four failures. Italy's football administration is generally quick to fall back on old patterns, so even if coach Roberto Mancini hasn't been sacked yet, it's possible that they opt for a "safe pair of hands", which has already been mooted as including former coach Marcello Lippi in the setup - this would be fine, as it was his team that won in 2006, but he was then back for the disaster of 2010, having opted for the older players he knew and leaving out newer players that might have made a difference.
It's also hard not to consider how weak Italian football has become at club level. No Italian club has won the Champions League since 2010, when Inter won under José Mourinho, and only Juventus has even reached the final since then, losing to Spanish teams each time. In the Europa League the record is even worse, as an Italian team hasn't won the competition since 1999 (when it was the Uefa Cup). In that time, Inter has been the only Italian team to reach the final, where they lost against Sevilla in 2020; but even that carries a hint of defeat, because Inter had only dropped down to the Europa League because they'd crashed out of the group stage of the Champions League.
This season Inter did better, but it and Juventus still got knocked out in the second round, meaning no Italian team is participating in the quarterfinals. It's a little depressing, if you think about it.
I don't know enough about Italian football to say why it's been so lackluster at club level. There's probably some aspect of over-reliance on foreign players, but other leagues, like England and Spain, have that problem and they've dominated the Champions League. It could also be residual shenanigans among the selections of referees; I've seen it suggested that, bribe scandals aside, larger clubs like Juventus still have more sway over referee selection than in other leagues, so they could just be used to everything going their own way at home, and not being able to cope abroad.
Whatever the cause (and I'm sure there's not just one cause), it feels like Italy's debacles of the last few years underline what a hollow exercise the European Super League would be. It's no surprise that Juventus's president is still pushing the idea, because he probably sees his club sliding out of Europe's elite, and wants to find a way to keep them there. Some pundits have asked if Juventus would really want to be at the bottom of the ESL every year, but I suspect that they wouldn't mind, as long as they didn't have to worry about getting knocked out and potentially failing to qualify. That's the attraction of a cartel model, after all...
All things pass, though, and I'm sure this current wave of Italian under-performance will end someday. Given its record in the last few Euro tournaments, it's also reasonable to expect Italy to do well there, too. But much as I love the European Championships, there's nothing like seeing Italy perform on the world's biggest stage, win or lose.
Unfortunately, through complacency, poor squad selection or simply bad luck, I won't be able to root for my team at the World Cup this November. And yes, it's only a game... but it still hurts.
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