When I read yesterday Bayern Munich striker Robert Lewandowski wants to move to another club, my first thought was, where would he go? The answer appears to be Barcelona, which makes sense as one of the few places that could either afford his desired wages or put up a large enough transfer fee for him. The other thought I had was that this move, along with Erling Braut Haaland leaving Borussia Dortmund for Manchester City, suggests that the Bundesliga isn't quite at the level of the Premier League or Spain's Liga.
I've spent a lot of time, on this blog and on Twitter, railing about competitive imbalance in the Champions League, and how weird it is that Spain, England, Germany and Italy each automatically get four group stage spots, to the detriment of other, perhaps more deserving leagues. My focus has been Italy, which has performed woefully for the last decade or so and not justified having more spots than France (though there are problems there, too), but I'm being forced to consider that maybe Germany isn't justifying having four spots either.
Here are the numbers: A German team (Bayern) last won the Champions League in 2020, beating Paris St Germain 1-0. Prior to that, a German team hadn't been in the final since 2013, when Bayern beat Dortmund, which led some excitable souls to suggest that an era of German dominance could be in the offing. I was basing that prediction on the fact that Bayern had also reached (and lost) the final in both 2012 and 2010, and the fact that these performances had won Germany a fourth Champions League spot. The thing I was right about, way back then, was that the following decade would see the Bundesliga become the connoisseur's league, but more in the sense that it's the league for hipsters to brag about how knowledgeable they are (because they know what's happening in that league).
The center of gravity shifted instead to Spanish teams, which promptly won the next five tournaments in a row, and English teams, which won two of the remaining three and contested one of those five Spanish wins. This year, in fact, will be a repeat of that final in 2018, when Real Madrid beat Liverpool. Admittedly, other than 2020, the only other team to reach the final during this period was Juventus, which lost twice to Spanish teams. I don't think I'm harsh when I suggest that Italy should have three spots, but by these measures it's reasonable that Germany also drop to three.
As for Haaland and Lewandowski, you could make the case that they're the continent's two most exciting forwards. Both have been breaking records for a while now, with Lewandowski in particular showing up as the Bundesliga's top scorer in the last five consecutive seasons. They aren't about to usher in a prolonged period of Ballon d'Or dominance like Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo did, because Haaland is twelve years younger than Lewandowski, but they're in a similar mold.
When Haaland's move to Man City was announced this week, it felt like a natural (ish) step. I qualify that because City isn't the best team for forwards, and because it manages to score tons of goals without a traditional target-man, like Haaland is. He was linked before this season began with Manchester United, which seemed a slightly better fit but given the shambles they've become this season, he must imagine he's dodged a bullet.
Likewise, it feels natural that Lewandowski should move on. As I said, he's been Germany's leading scorer for five seasons in a row, for a team that's won the league ten seasons in a row. I wouldn't be surprised if the game's gotten a bit stale for him there, and now that he's 33, he might be looking for a final new challenge and a place to cement his reputation. At the national level, he's always done well for Poland in qualifying but never seems to deliver for them in tournaments, so Barcelona or Madrid, or even one of the English teams, seem like good places for him to show his talents. Imagine him in the front line at Arsenal or Spurs, for example - it's not likely, but he'd bring some class to whichever league and team he ends up in.
Wherever he goes, it's notable that both of the Bundesliga's marquee players are leaving the league at the same time. The league's become ridiculously uncompetitive, more so than Serie A, where at least Juve has lost its dominance (I say "at least" even though I'm a Juve supporter). Even Spain has two teams that habitually win the league, and Atletico Madrid is in there from time to time. Yet in Germany Dortmund has failed to mount a serious challenge to Bayern's dominance since Jurgen Klopp left.
If Lewandowski does leave, it'll be interesting to see how Bayern adapts, and whether that gives the other German teams a chance to win the title again. Just as it'll be interesting to see what impact he makes at Barcelona or whichever club he ends up playing for.
Just as long as it's not PSG.
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