World Cup 2022: A Party Pooped

The World Cup in Qatar has begun! For better or worse.

I'm always excited, because the World Cup is my favorite thing in the world (ahead of the European Championships, of course). When else do I get to be patriotic about being Italian...? Eh? Oh, right, Italy may never show up again.

Well, in that case, when else do I get to be patriotic about being American, without a bunch of armed fascists getting excited too? The USMNT has become a good vehicle for soft power in recent years, because they play football the way it ought to be played, according to the English (badly but with a lot of heart), and because this is one of those rare instances where they're Just Another Country and not the undisputed world leaders. Some favorite matches recently have been the ones where the US got knocked out, because they fought heroically until the bitter end. I'm looking forward to more of that this year.

On the other hand, there's the whole backdrop to this particular World Cup. Sure, there are the accusations of worker mistreatment and oppression of women and minorities in the host country, Qatar. Those would be bad enough on their own. But then there's also the dodgy way in which this tournament was awarded: no less a personage than former FIFA president Sepp Blatter has suggested that it was "a bad choice".

He could have raised these concerns in 2010, perhaps before his organization voted to award it there on the same day they awarded the 2018 tournament to Russia, but hey: who needs moral courage, eh?

(As for Russia: kinda embarrassing that they can't be there this month because of invading a neighbor, and also, maybe they should have had 2018 hosting duties taken away after the first invasion in 2014? I dunno)

Still, the tournament has gone ahead, despite the misgivings of almost everyone, so let's look at some positives: the hosts lost the first match in abject fashion! A friend of mine on Facebook predicted a 4-0 blowout by Ecuador, which sadly didn't happen. But it was kinda vindicating to see such a bad performance from the team that's only ever managed to qualify by hosting. If they continue to play like this, it'll be a really open group, at least for Ecuador, the Netherlands and Senegal.

The result also sits in sharp relief when you consider that Qatar are the reigning champions of Asia, while Ecuador are the fourth-best team from South America present in this World Cup. Maybe instead of bullying countries to build expensive and useless stadia, FIFA should be addressing that competitive gap?

On the other, other hand: I do appreciate that this is the first World Cup held in the Arab world. There are a lot of fans in that region, and it's great that they can host this big party for the world. I want to be clear that any criticisms I have of the 2022 World Cup are aimed squarely at FIFA and the local organizers and the government of Qatar, whose treatment of women, LGBTQ people, migrant workers and dissidents is shocking and dystopian. But given how despotic the Qatari regime is (and let's also remember that neighboring Saudi Arabia is worse), is it fair to tar all Qatari citizens or residents with that same brush?

That's why I couldn't find the heart to laugh at the crestfallen locals in the stands for today's match. They may benefit from their country's unequal system, but in the end the people showing up in the regular seats (these folks weren't in the executive boxes or anything) just want to have something enjoyable in their lives, and I can't begrudge them that. This may be the only chance a lot of them get to see World Cup football live, or to mix with so many football fans from all over the world, so they should be allowed to enjoy it (I won't be sad if Qatar do go out in the first round, of course).

I don't know if I'll be blogging on the cup every day for this tournament, but I'll hopefully be able to come up with some clever insights at regular intervals until the final on 18 December. In the meantime, I'll leave you with some predictions, based on how things have gone in previous tournaments:

• France is going to get eliminated in the first round, as Germany, Spain, Italy and, well, France themselves have before them. Since the turn of the millennium Brazil's been the only holder to reach the round of 16, and I expect this trend to continue, primarily because no one else is talking about the trend (538 rates France as fourth most likely to win, which is similar to what they said about Germany four years ago). That said, with all the injuries plaguing the France squad this year, I also wouldn't be surprised if they pull together and buck the trend.
• The US is going to continue their own trend of doing well when the World Cup is not held in Europe. In this case, "doing well" means getting past the group stage, but I don't expect them to get past the round of 16.
• I've got England tipped to do well, which in this case means reaching the final (!). Playing with the various predictors, if England win their group, they should have a relatively easy path to the final. This is predicated on things not blowing up for them along the way, but oddly enough I don't think the other European powerhouses (Spain and Germany) have enough to go all the way.
• This could very well be Brazil or Argentina's year, unless it isn't. Going by the relative strengths of their matchups, I have them meeting in the semifinal and Brazil beating England. But since most of the other predictions I've seen have Brazil winning, I'm starting to qualify this prediction somewhat (538 predicted Brazil was most likely to win in 2014 and 2018 as well).
• The traditional boost to the host country's neighbors won't benefit other Asian teams, like Australia, Japan or South Korea, but I expect it to benefit North African teams, like Tunisia or Morocco. I don't think Saudi Arabia or Iran are well-loved in Qatar (the former tried to blockade the country a few years ago), so I would be surprised if either benefited from much home support. Though it's easier for Saudi or Iranian fans to get there than it will be for 2026, when the World Cup will be held here...

Anyway, those are my predictions, based on nothing more than what's happened before. I've hedged as much as I could, so if any prove to be wrong I'll be able to say I was just talking about probabilities. I'll try and offer some updated predictions when the group stage ends, so that I'll have another chance to look clever.

In the meantime, I'm hoping for both a fun festival of football, and some massive embarrassment to FIFA that will cause the entire executive committee to resign in shame and give us a governing body we deserve. This is, of course, the least likely of my predictions to come true, so take everything I've said for what it's worth.