The round of 16 is done, and up until this morning I thought the surprises were all behind us, but along comes Morocco, knocking out Spain and flying the flag for the rest of the world, i.e. countries outside Europe and South America. Of course, that obscures how close Japan came as well... if only they had more practice at penalties...
It feels a long time ago now, but the Netherlands-USA match was just three days ago, on Saturday. I'm left with mixed feelings, because it felt about right for the team, but I was still disappointed by the manner in which they went out.
Every time the World Cup has been held outside Europe, the US has managed to progress from the group stage, and this time was no different. Home field advantage dragged the team further than it really ought to have gone in 1994, when the tournament was held in the US, but I'd say that in the last decade or so, enough good players have come out of the US to justify saying that the team should consider reaching the round of 16 to be the expectation every four years.
That said, it was clear even in the group stage that this team isn't yet up to the level it should be. I think that because I follow so much British football content, it was easy to get swept up in thinking that Wales would be good, when the fact is that their team was composed of a few very good players and a few who play in England's League Two, aka the fourth division of English football. Not only that, the good players don't get regular play: Joe Allen was out injured for much of the season in progress when the World Cup started, and Gareth Bale is more used as an impact sub these days, even now that he plays in MLS.
So the USA's first failure was not winning that match: first, by giving up that penalty that allowed Wales to equalize, and secondly, by trying to defend their 1-0 lead rather than pushing for a second goal. This tendency was in evidence against Iran as well, so that they ended that match with a nervy finish that could have gone wrong if Iran's finishing had been more clinical.
I've heard a lot of praise for the USA's midfield, and they certainly did their share of running. I also think Sergiño Dest had a good group stage, marauding up and down the wing against Wales and Iran in particular. But I think the team's finishing in front of goal was poor, and the defense always felt one step from calamity - as demonstrated when Walker Zimmerman gifted Wales that penalty.
Watching them against the Dutch, what struck me was how easy the Dutch made it all look on Saturday morning. I hadn't watched as many of the Dutch games, but the sense was that they hadn't quite moved into gear. Well, my sense on Saturday was that the Dutch didn't need to move out of first gear to beat the USA.
This is in marked contrast to the more frenetic pace of the Argentina-Australia match later that morning. Argentina won by a smaller margin, and Australia's goal provided less of a sense of comeback (although if Kuol had scored that would have been nuts) than the USA's goal against the Netherlands. But then the Netherlands just went straight to the other end and pulled back another, killing the match, while Argentina surely was glad to hear the final whistle. The only game that looked as straightforward, at least after 30 minutes or so, was England v Senegal.
There's not much to say about most of the other matches in this round. Valiant as South Korea were, they got hammered by Brazil; Poland also showed a bit more grit against France, only to fall; Japan did well to hold Croatia to 0-0 but were let down by naivety in penalties; and Switzerland looked bereft of ideas against Portugal, as if they didn't know what to do with themselves after having beaten Serbia.
The Morocco-Spain result is the one wild card here, since Spain started the tournament with that statement win over Costa Rica. But Spain then drew against a lackluster Germany and lost to Japan, so it's clear they had weaknesses. And these huge wins don't always translate into victory at the World Cup. What's funny to me is how bad they were at the penalty shootout - Morocco's keeper looked so relaxed and in control that his team has to have studied Spanish penalties in-depth.
After all this, I still think the English and the Dutch will meet in the final. On the "left" side of the bracket, I'm pretty confident the Dutch can get past Argentina, who look nervy, and they're the team best-placed to expose whatever weaknesses Brazil have (no disrespect to Croatia, but I don't know if they have enough to beat Brazil). Though of the two South American teams, I'd expect Brazil to have the better chance of beating the Netherlands.
Meanwhile, England will have their toughest match against France, but I think they're solid enough to hold the French off - even 538 and ESPN have England as slight favorites. The team is still basically the one that got to the Euro 2020 final last year, and that could have won, so I do fancy their chances, even against a particularly on-fire Mbappe and Griezmann and co.
Whichever of them wins will most likely beat the winner of Portugal-Morocco, whom I expect to be Portugal, at least as long as they start Ramos in place of Ronaldo. I don't know that I'm glad to have written off both Messi and Ronaldo in the quarterfinals like this, but I just don't see either Portugal or Argentina getting to the final, so no fairy tale endings for them.
Now I just have to figure out what to do with myself for two whole days without football...
No comments:
Post a Comment