Farewell to Arsenal's Title

It might feel a little premature, but I think the title says it all. With today's 3-0 loss to Brighton, Arsenal's title challenge is most likely over, and that's unfortunate.

This writing has been on the wall for a while. Even though Arsenal have spent most of the season in first place, and at two different times found themselves eight points ahead of Manchester City, the bookmakers and predictors have given City the best chance of winning the league. Part of this handicap was the fact the City had played two games fewer than Arsenal, but also just the fact that City always seem to find a way to win. It didn't help that they've been breaking all kinds of scoring records with Erling Haaland up front.

The turning point was when City and Arsenal faced one another, and City won handily. Now City are four points ahead with three games to play, compared to Arsenal's two. City need one win or two draws to win the league, and it's hard to see them slipping up at this stage, especially since their next match will be against Chelsea.

Chelsea, of course, have played kingmakers in closely contested title races before. The most notable example I can think of is the 2015-16 season, when their draw with Tottenham Hotspur meant that Leicester City's lead was unassailable. Leicester won that season on the back of that match, as probably the most unfancied champion in the Premier League era, if not longer.

Interestingly, Chelsea were in the middle of a transitional season then, too. Jose Mourinho had been sacked following his traditional third-season meltdown (this was his second spell at Chelsea), just as Chelsea now are lying in 11th place after the chaos of being bought by new owners, sacking two managers, and then hiring Frank Lampard again on an interim basis. 

However, I doubt Chelsea are going to put up enough of a fight this time around. They may have started picking up points again in the last couple of weeks, following a nightmare streak of losses, but it's hard to imagine a team that just drew 2-2 with Nottingham Forest could derail the consummate professionals of Manchester City.

It's all a shame, because this is the best Arsenal have looked in years, nay, decades. They may have spent many of the seasons following the 2003-04 Invincibles season qualifying for the Champions League, but I'd say they haven't been close to winning the league since then. Previous manager Arsène Wenger forgot how to scout players after a few years, and his immediate successor, Unai Emery, turned out to be a bad choice (though not for Aston Villa this season, as he's helped them challenge for Europe since taking over from Steven Gerrard). Mikel Arteta was seen as a bit of a bold choice when he was hired in 2019, but he's gradually improved them since taking over, and they've made some good signings, particularly Manchester City castoffs Gabriel Jesus and Oleksandr Zinchenko.

I guess I was hoping for a different champion for once. The last time a London club won the league was 2016-17, when Chelsea won it under Antonio Conte, but Man City have won almost every season since (except 2019-20, when Liverpool won it). The Premier League isn't quite as dominated by a single team as some of the other big European leagues, but it's also nowhere near as open as some of its more starry-eyed defenders like to say.

It's hard to say whether Arsenal will bounce back from this and challenge for the title next season, or if this season's performance will just be a blip. Even if they don't screw up their recruitment during the summer, they should expect stiffer competition from Manchester United, Spurs and Chelsea as they bed in after their transitional seasons (although who knows if Spurs will ever attract another manager?). Also, whether or not Haaland hits the same heights as this year, Man City will have strengthened even further, making them even harder to catch.

It'll also be interesting to see if any of the mid-table teams can build on this season's performances, notably Brighton and Aston Villa. Both have done extremely well out of their new managers this season, but the important thing will be whether they can cope with the added pressure of Thursday night matches in the Europa League (or Conference League, depending on where they finish in the table). This seems to be the step that trips up most promising teams, and sends them back to flirting with relegation, as we've seen with West Ham this season.

Arsenal isn't necessarily my team, but they're the closest thing to a local club for me, so it's nice to see them do well, especially after so long in the wilderness. I hope that they do manage to capitalize on this season's successes, and challenge for next season's title, because I'm looking forward to the end of the Man City era.