I read the Guardian's interview with Susan Sarandon this morning, which leads with the provocative idea that if Hillary Clinton had won the election we'd be at war right now. My first reaction was "Fuck off", but I decided to skim the article and see what else she had to say. The Clinton stuff is pretty minor, but it got me thinking that the current wave of sexual harassment allegations and resignations would probably not be happening right now if we'd elected our first female president.
It's kind of an odd thing to think about, and I'm clearly not the only person thinking about it, since this article quoting Nancy Pelosi also showed up on the Guardian today. But it also reminded me of an article on fivethirtyeight.com where Nate Silver provided "dispatches" from the parallel universe where Clinton won the election.
That was before the Harvey Weinstein allegations came up, unleashing the flood that has taken down Kevin Spacey and Louis CK, and that's drawn attention on Al Franken and Roy Moore, so the biggest counterfactual Silver came up with (as I recall) was that the UK's election this past June would have strengthened Theresa May's Conservatives, rather than the diminished majority they got in reality.
But it's pretty clear that because Donald Trump's "locker room talk" on the infamous Access Hollywood tape didn't kill his presidency, we've been looking at this kind of behavior much more closely than we might have otherwise. After all, the women's marches back in January, on the weekend of the inauguration, were in response to his clear misogyny and lack of remorse over that and other actions he's taken that are pretty fucking gross.
Before any conspiracy theorists twist my words, it's clear that the accusations against Weinstein would probably have come out anyway, regardless of who was president, but it's fair to ask whether they would have taken on this life of their own and spread to other malefactors. Because the real issue around the accusations against Weinstein is that it touched off the #metoo thing, where many women felt they were able to share their stories. My Facebook and Twitter feeds were full of #metoo posts, both from people I know and shared from celebrities.
It's sort of cliche to say that Trump's election emboldened racists and whoever to come out into the open, but it's also true that as I walked on the treadmill at the gym that inauguration weekend I was next to two guys who were referring to the women's marchers as "rainbow dykes" and other pleasant names. It's hard to see them having that same conversation if the women's marches hadn't happened.
And that, in turn, is likely what led to a lot of women deciding they'd taken enough shit in their lives. After the Santa Barbara shootings, social media got divided between #notallmen (which is the #alllivesmatter of gender politics) and #yesallwomen, and unfortunately didn't take on the critical mass that #metoo is taking. Luckily, #metoo is phrased in such a way that assholes can't jump up and muddy the waters with semantics - there's no obvious response.
The other way is in the dominoes that have fallen since Trump took office. Clinton wouldn't have tapped Jeff Sessions for Attorney General, so his seat wouldn't have come up for election, and Roy Moore would just be this asshole known only to people in Alabama politics but few others. The accusations against him would still have come up, but if it were now, they wouldn't have the force they currently do, given that they dovetail with the wider #metoo movement; if he'd been up for the seat later, they'd probably have sunk because they didn't come on the tail of these others.
In either case, they wouldn't be the instructive example they are now, of a GOP that's so lost its way that it would rather have a safe vote for its agenda who's a pedophile. It's damaging not only because it makes a mockery of its standing as the party of traditional values (whatever that means), but also because they're clearly afraid of going out and selling their ideas. Their way or the highway.
So while this is a difficult time for all people of good conscience, there's a glimmer of a possibility that the big mistake our country made last November could make people more conscious of these issues. I won't say it'll definitely lead to a better environment for women, but we have the opportunity to improve things, and it's all because we're seeing how bad "bad" could get. Hopefully not too many people get hurt in other ways while we get back on the right track.
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