Well, we're on to phase 2 of the World Cup, and the point where things get serious. There's no round-robins, no scraping through based on goal difference or fair play, just straight knockouts with the specter of penalty shootouts hanging over everything.
I don't know if I can rule whether it's been a good tournament yet, because the scheduling has meant that I haven't managed to watch that many games. On the second day I tried getting up for the England-Iran match, which would have been thrilling except that it was 5am and I had to go back to bed after the first half. I've also missed most of the 8am kickoffs, to say nothing of the 7am ones in this final phase of the group stage.
What I can say is that there's been a lot of drama so far, especially in the later groups. It wasn't a stretch to say that the Dutch would win Group A, for example, or that England would do well in Group B. But all of the African teams have had unexpectedly good tournaments so far, even if most of them went out in the first round. The same can be said of the Asian teams, given that half of that contingent qualified for the knockout stage, which is more than ever before. Especially on the last day, most of them had good results that left them in the running to qualify for the knockouts, which doesn't usually happen. It'll be interesting to see how Australia, Japan and South Korea perform, as well as Senegal and Morocco.
Predictions Update
On that note, might as well have a look at how my predictions turned out, right? Of the eight groups, I got only three completely correct: Netherlands and Senegal from Group A, England and USA from Group B, Brazil and Switzerland from Group G. The only group I got completely wrong was Group D: I predicted Denmark and Tunisia would go through, but instead it was France and Australia.
It's curious, but like everyone else in the world I assumed Denmark would replicate their form from Euro 2020 last year. As the group stage went on without any good performances from them, it became a running joke about them being dark horses, but of course, it's easy to be critical in hindsight. I can't speak for anyone at the Guardian Football Daily/Weekly, but I think I underestimated the way that Christian Eriksen's cardiac arrest pulled the team together, probably masking the weaknesses of a team that's probably not that skillful to begin with.
I also ruled out Australia because I thought they were too old and not populated with enough Europe-based players. This will likely tell against them in the next match, against Argentina, but then, they haven't been exactly imperious yet either.
Where's the Dominance?
Then again, nobody's been imperious in the group stage. This is the first tournament this century (I can't be bothered to check any further back) where every team has dropped points in the first stage. In previous World Cups there's always been at least a couple of teams that won all three of their games, sometimes as many as five, but not this year. Indeed, five of the first-placed teams in the groups actually lost a match, compared with none in 2002.
It's a much-loved statistic that Spain in 2010 is the only team to have won the World Cup after losing its opening match. As far as I can tell, they and West Germany in 1954 are the only ones to have won after losing a match at all. That's not an iron law, much as I hate to admit it, so it's fair to say that the front runners remain Brazil, France and Argentina, all of whom have lost a match. But if we were to take them out of the running, who does that leave us with?
The Netherlands, England, USA, Morocco and Croatia are the only teams that haven't lost yet. Since the Netherlands and the USA face one another in the round of 16, that record will end for at least one of them, but the rest aren't scheduled to meet until the semi-finals, assuming they all get there. It seems unlikely, of course, but it underscores how odd this World Cup has turned out.
That said, I think we'll start to see results returning to normal as we go deeper into the tournament, which also implies another win for a Western European team. The technical ability of the core UEFA sides will probably tell, even against the likes of Brazil and Argentina, even as Neymar returns from injury for Brazil. If we assume a bias toward Western European teams, then the best-placed teams to get to the final are, in my opinion, the Netherlands and England
Both have a good mix of experience and youthful athleticism, as well as not being reliant on one or two notable players. This is in contrast to Portugal and Argentina, and to a lesser extent Brazil, who boast a dazzling array of talent even without Neymar. But all three of these teams, plus Spain, have shown that they can be got, whereas the Netherlands and England haven't yet.
Maybe I'll be wrong. We've demonstrated that I'm not exactly Nostradamus, what with my initial (and not entirely unfounded) prediction of France's early exit. But if we presume that history has any bearing on performance, then my current guess is that England will beat the Netherlands in this World Cup.
Or it'll be Morocco! Who knows anymore?
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