I'm holding fire on writing a post about X-Men '97, because I'm waiting for the final episode, and I'm also only halfway through Shogun, and on top of all that, I don't really want to wade into politics (but ceasefire now, please), so it's a football post this week.
It's now been four seasons since anyone other than Manchester City won the Premier League, it's been seven seasons since a London club won it, and 20 seasons since Arsenal last won the title. I may not be a fully paid-up Gooner, but I do tend to prefer the red side of North London, and overall, I think it would be nice to see a different club run out as champions this year.
Around this time last year (actually a couple of weeks later, but with a similar number of games left to play), I wrote a post about Arsenal relinquishing the title race with a 3-0 loss to Brighton. Arsenal had two games left to play while City had three, but were ahead by four points. As of this writing, Arsenal has three games left to play and is a point ahead of City, which has four games left. If neither side drops any points for the rest of the season, City will win by two points, but if City draws a single game before then, they'll need Arsenal to slip up, because Arsenal has the better goal difference.
Last year was a bit of a weird season for Arsenal, because they roared out of the traps and were on top for most of the season. They were so dominant in the early stages that they actually built up an eight-point lead over City, squandered it, and then built it up again. The trouble is, they squandered it again at the end of the season, and found themselves overtaken.
This year, on the other hand, they've shared top spot with City for most of the season, and with Liverpool for certain parts. The team that's had a weird season has been City, which hasn't really fired on all cylinders from the start. Erling Haaland has been generally quite deadly in front of goal, but not as much as last year, and the team has suffered. The various podcasts I listen to talked about City's drift earlier in the season, as if they lacked a concrete motivation after doing the treble last year; I didn't quite agree, but when City started talking about doing a "double triple", it struck me that Football Weekly might have a point. It didn't help that City then crashed out of the Champions League at the hands of Real Madrid the next day.
But as both Football Weekly and Totally Football are at pains to point out every year, this is the part of the season where City always do the business. They're talented and professional enough not to let nerves get to them as they close in on the end of the season each year, even when they've been behind or when they've had competitors like Liverpool keeping pace with them and waiting for any sort of slip-up. So I still have to assume that City is best placed to win, unless they lose or draw any matches.
Arsenal hasn't seemed as brittle this season. They've lost five matches, versus City's three, but have lost fewer games against weaker opponents. Aston Villa appears to be the only team that's beaten them home and away, but West Ham and Fulham have also beaten them, but no team has beaten Arsenal by more than two goals (so far). They do seem to have strengthened since last season, with more attacking options from midfield and the wings than just Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Martinelli and Martin Ødegaard - Leandro Trossard and Kai Havertz seem to have done a good job for them in particular, especially recently.
It'll be interesting to see if City do slip up, because I think I'm not alone in watching for cracks in their armor. They've been extremely dominant since 2017-18, and Liverpool's 2019-20 win notwithstanding, are poised to have a period of sustained success like Juventus in Serie A or Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga. Everybody talks about how much more open the Premier League is than other big European leagues (and France), but that openness has meant only that City rarely ran away with the title - most years they've had someone nipping at their heels, only to lose at the final hurdle.
If Arsenal can maintain this lead, it'll be an impressive achievement. Arsenal may not be a poor team by any reckoning, or even really underdogs, but given how City and Newcastle are essentially sports washing projects, and how Chelsea's billionaire owners have been driving them into the ground, it's good to see a team with less expansive resources challenging.
Again, let's keep this in perspective - Arsenal is rich as fuck, but not like these more expensively assembled rivals. I hope to see them lift the trophy in May... and while I'm at it, it'd be hilarious if City ended this season without any silverware.
I can dream, can't I?
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