So now that the round of 16 is over the wheat has been separated from chaff, a metaphor that's really only apposite in the case of Italy. The other seven losing teams gave a good account of themselves (apart from Belgium, but more about that anon), and would have enlivened the next round if they'd managed to reach it. Special kudos go to Georgia, who may have lost by the second-largest margin against Spain, but despite that made it a contest, especially going ahead through that own goal that they forced Spain's le Normand into.
If I have a complaint about this round, it's that there were essentially no surprises, and the one giant-killing we saw (Italy at the hands of Switzerland) was more of a mercy-killing. I posted about it on Saturday, so there's not much left to say, but I'll repeat that I'm excited to see how Switzerland gets on in the quarters.
But in every other case, the big-name team won. Not always handily, in the case of Portugal, France or England, but they did it. I do find it interesting that France, whom I considered to have the strongest squad at the tournament, and England, who may be a little lopsided thanks to form and injuries but still has a great forward line, labored so much.
My impression is that the teams that tend to win tournaments aren't always the most technically gifted (see the Dutch in 1998 or 2008, or the Portuguese in 2004) but rather the ones with the best team cohesion. I figured that was what always kept England from doing better in previous tournaments (though it should also be said that routinely getting to the quarterfinals under Sven-Göran Eriksson wasn't a bad achievement). Further, I always appreciated that Gareth Southgate may be limited tactically, but his real achievement was getting the team all playing for one another. What's weird is that he seems to have lost his gift for man-management at this tournament, though he's done well to get them to the quarterfinals, and is in with a decent shout to get them to the semis - which would be the first time an England team managed something like that.
(I like reminding people that he's gotten the team further than any manager since Alf Ramsay in 1966, and Ramsay only had that one good tournament, whereas Southgate has had two overachievements - 2018 and 2021 - and one par performance, in 2022).
On that side of the draw, England v Switzerland feels like the hardest to call. Switzerland doesn't normally get this far, and I think they have some structural problems, but England seems unclear on which version of the team to field. That said, I think the quality of England's players will tell, and that they'll beat the Swiss to make the semifinals. I also think that they'll meet the Dutch there, because as exciting as the Turks were against Austria, I think the Netherlands will have too much firepower for them.
The other side of the draw is much spicier. At least, if you don't consider France v Portugal. I'll dispense with that one quickly: I think France will beat Portugal in a dour slog, probably by just a single goal, and possibly after extra time. But that won't matter, because either one will lose to whoever wins the remaining quarterfinal.
Germany v Spain is pretty clearly the pick of the round, and in a just world, would have been the final. Instead, one of these teams will have to go down to a disappointing defeat so early in the tournament, when they both at least deserve the semifinal. My suspicion is that Spain will spoil Germany's party, because they've been clearly the strongest team, even if they haven't truly been tested. On the other hand, Germany will have the crowd behind them, and as I said, the most gifted team doesn't always win. That said, I think either Spain or Germany will go on to win the entire tournament, regardless of who they face in the semis and the final.
At any rate, now we're at the sharp end of the tournament: the biggest teams have dispensed with almost all of the fairy-tale overachievers, and now they have to fight it out amongst themselves. It's disappointing to me that Italy ended up being the only big name to go out at this point, but it'd be unfair if we won every tournament, right?
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