My last post talked about the lack of surprises, but that was written before all the teams had played one another even once. Now that each team has played two games, I figured it was time to see if any trends could be teased out yet.
The first is that Matchday 1 had the highest number of goals per game since the European Championships switched to this 24-team format. In 2016, teams were evidently cagier than they are now, because there were just 1.83 goals per game. By comparison, 2021 had 2.33 at the same period, and 2024 goes even better with 2.83 goals per game. The difference is 6 goals (28 in 2021 vs 34 in 2024), which comes from the fact that the opening game, Germany vs Scotland, registered five goals for Germany and one for Scotland, whereas one game in the opening match day in 2021 was a goalless draw.
There's a similar increase on Matchday 2 compared with previous tournaments, with 2.25 goals per game in both 2024 and 2021, against 2.08 in 2016. What's interesting there is that represents a decline on the first match day for the two most recent tournaments, but an increase in 2016.
I don't think I've heard anyone mention the amount of goals per game, but I suspect there are a couple of explanations. One is that the new format has made teams more willing to attack: because the four best third-placed teams go through, and goal difference is one of the key criteria for determining which four are considered the best, it creates an incentive for teams to go all-out.
If that's the explanation, then it would be an example of football's governing bodies successfully pushing teams to play more aggressively. This is notable because previous initiatives included the "golden goal", whereby the first goal in extra time after 90 minutes would be the winning goal, and the "silver goal", where a goal in extra time didn't immediately end the game, but if it were the only goal in that period of extra time, then it would be the winning goal.
The golden goal was intended to make teams more aggressive, but instead made them more defensive, because they knew that getting caught on the counter-attack would lose them the game, whereas they'd have more control of their own destiny if they held on until the penalty shootout. The silver goal rule was an attempt to soften this, but was soon abandoned because it also led to teams being more defensive.
On the other hand, it could be part of a wider trend in football toward playing a more attacking style. I haven't bothered to crunch the numbers to see how many goals per game have been scored at the World Cup or UEFA Champions League, but I suspect that in the latter case, at least the finals have become less goal-heavy affairs. Since the Champions League is undergoing a format change in the coming season, it may change the goals per game ratio there, but for now it's too early to tell.
The case for the increase being part of a wider change in football is still valid, however. The shift was underway already in 2016, but essentially the Dutch way of playing football, as filtered through the Barcelona academy, has taken over the European game. Given that pretty much all national sides are playing some form of this pressing or gegenpressing game, you don't see too many sides setting out to play ultra-defensive football like Greece in 2004.
Coming back to my comment about fewer surprises, there have now been a few. Romania roared out of nowhere to beat Ukraine 3-0, and then Slovakia beat Belgium 1-0, a result that everybody seems a little desperate to characterize as the biggest upset in Euros history. Some pundits have pointed out that it's such a big upset based on their FIFA rankings, which don't necessarily track as closely to their relative positions in UEFA, or indeed in qualifying for this tournament. But I suppose we can let them have this one.
Turkey vs Georgia wasn't a real shocker, but based on the highlights, it was an extraordinarily entertaining match. Group B in general was also rather entertaining in Matchday 2, though I was a little less enthused by Italy getting dominated so much by Spain. My first impression was that Italy set out to play for a draw, given that both had won their previous games and being on 4 points after the first two matches essentially guarantees getting to the knockout rounds. However, none of the pundits I listen to on Football Weekly or Totally Football suggested that, rather that Italy was so dominated by Spain that it's surprising the match ended only 1-0 (and that was an own goal).
Speaking of own goals, the podcasts have been talking a lot about how many there have been so far in the tournament. There have, indeed, been 6 so far, compared with 5 at this point in 2021 and 2 in 2016 (which were also the only own-goals in the group stage that year). I think this also stems from the tendency of teams to play more aggressively, which means more action in front of the goal face and more possibility for errors like Rüdiger's goal for Scotland or Calafiore's goal for Spain.
I seem to recall someone in a past tournament mentioning that it might have something to do with player tiredness, which sounds pretty likely, given how many games per season the top players are in. The third match day in 2021 featured 3 own goals, so it'll be interesting to see if that trend continues this year, or if the teams will be more cagey as they seek to secure their spots in the last 16.
None of the matchups in Matchday 3 strike me as classics in the making, but I'll obviously be watching Italy-Croatia very closely, hoping for a good result. On the one hand, I don't know that Italy has a great record against Croatia, but on the other, Croatia doesn't have a great record at the Euros. But after a string of decent performances, including winning the damn thing last time out, it'd be really disappointing to have Italy crash out at the group stage, like in 2004.
As far as winners for the whole thing, now that I've seen the teams in action, I think Germany and Spain are the teams that are playing the best. I haven't done the permutations to see if they'd meet before the final, but based on their form so far, whichever of them wins is likely to win the whole thing. France has been a bit disappointing, given that I thought (and still think) that they came into the tournament with the strongest squad, man-for-man, of any teams. England may still find their feet, but it seems a little less likely - I'm rather a big fan of Gareth Southgate and how he's finally gotten them all pulling in the same direction, but the match against Serbia felt a little bereft of ideas. That said, I think there was a lot of the same chat after England's 0-0 with Scotland last time out, and they ended up getting to the final.
As a final thought, it's a little early to tell who might go further than expected. The Euros, like any tournament, are dominated by the big teams, but not as much as the World Cup, and Portugal were the latest kind of unfancied side to win it, in 2016. I think a Greece-style upset is off the menu, though, because we haven't seen a big giant-killing performance like their group-stage win against Spain.
At any rate, it's interesting that, going into the final round of group matches, only Poland has been definitely eliminated. This comes back to the point about teams going for it, since they can lose a game or draw all three and still progress. Here's hoping that Matchday 3 will be as good as what we've had so far!
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