Well, here we are, the end of the Euro 2024 group stage. The wheat has been separated from the chaff, the fourth-placed teams ruthlessly eliminated and the knockout rounds mapped out. Despite the lack of surprises in the early stages of the tournament, there have been a couple of interesting happenings - though no real giant-killings or shocks at big teams crashing out early. The closest we came is the Netherlands coming in third in their group, though they also turned out to be the top-ranked third-placed team.
Ukraine going out at this stage was a little bit of a surprise, if not a shock, but their group turned out super weird. Everyone finished on four points, and because the head-to-head records didn't apply, it came down to goal difference - which meant that Ukraine's opening 3-0 loss to Romania is what did for them. If they could have beaten Slovakia by more goals, or if they could have beaten Belgium... But this is just how the round-robin system works. There was little to separate the four (I believe I called this the Group of Meh), and in the end it came down to a fine margin like that.
There were two types of surprises. The first, and most positive, was certain unfancied teams qualifying for the Round of 16. Slovenia, Austria, Romania, Slovakia and most of all Georgia all fall into this category. Slovenia was lucky to find itself in a group with an England and Denmark (and Serbia, it should be said) who weren't firing on all cylinders. Same with Romania and Slovakia, given how strong Belgium were in previous tournaments. Georgia, on the other hand, came through a really tough group by beating Portugal (who were, admittedly, already qualified and playing their B team), while Austria came through an even tougher group and won more points than either France or the Netherlands. Regardless of what happens next, that's a good achievement for both teams.
The other type of surprise was how many of the fancied teams didn't dominate. England may have come first, but only Romania topped their group with fewer points. On the other hand, I expected France to dominate more, given that, man for man, they probably came in with the strongest squad at this tournament. Instead they could only muster a draw against a Poland that had already been eliminated as of Matchday 2. For me, though, Belgium is the biggest disappointment - I understand that national teams can't just conjure a well-balanced squad out of thin air like Manchester City or Real Madrid, but the sense is that Belgium called up a lot of players who are past their sell-by date. I think the real injustice for Ukraine is that they couldn't beat this Belgium (though that means Ukraine probably wouldn't have done much in the knockouts; many of us are still scarred from Ukraine-Switzerland in 2006, one of the worst games ever).
As far as goals, this phase of the group stage had the fewest goals per game of any match day of the past three Euros tournaments, at 1.67. This wasn't helped by the fact that there were no fewer than three 0-0 draws on Matchday 3, more than in all of Euro 2020's group stage. This tournament had as many goalless draws as Euro 2016, which had four, but which distributed them better. I guess, after all the excitement of the first two rounds, this is when teams decided to be a little more cagey - or they just had more trouble finding the net, as evidenced by England, Italy, Belgium and others' travails.
The own goal chart, meanwhile, grew by only one, thanks to Donyell Malen's contribution against (or rather for) Austria. This means Own Goal is the highest scorer so far at Euro 2024, but less prolific than in the last tournament. Of course, if you're not scoring goals, that means there's less opportunity for own goals. Kind of a shame, if you think about it.
With regard to the knockouts, and how those will shake out: the fact that no big teams crashed out early means that they're all still there to play one another. Of course, one side of the draw has Spain, Germany, Portugal and France - none of them are drawn together in the Round of 16, but they'll face each other if they get through to the quarterfinals, until one of them will get to the final (I don't think this is getting too far ahead of myself, by the way, since these are the best teams in Europe).
England and Italy and the Netherlands are on the "easier" side of the draw, though if they beat their rivals as expected, they'll also whittle each other away until the final. I think the Netherlands can expect to make short work of Romania, but then they'd probably face Austria again in the quarters, and who knows how that'll end up. England, meanwhile, should also see off Slovakia, which will get them a quarter final against Italy or Switzerland, both of which should be doable. I hate to say it, but I'd be surprised to see Italy beat England, even this team that has no enterprise.
A final word about England. Everybody's disgusted with that 0-0 against Slovenia, and rightly so. But a lot of commentators and a lot of my friends (who aren't commentators) are really dismissive of Gareth Southgate. I keep reminding everyone that he has the best record of any England manager apart from Alf Ramsay, who actually won a tournament. That isn't to say that Southgate has no flaws, or that his team selection has been weird, but I think that's more not knowing wtf to do with big names who are injured or tired (Kane, Saka, Bellingham) but who insist on playing.
Frankly, Southgate's probably out of here after this tournament, and like Joe Biden, he's not going to win over the haters, so he might as well go down swinging. Because, also like Joe Biden, the other options aren't very enticing - though it should be noted that (hopefully) Eddie Howe or Graham Potter won't attempt to foment an insurrection and overthrow the British government. One can't be sure of Frank Lampard as England manager, but in his case I don't think it'd be malice so much as accident-prone-ness to an impressive degree.
Anywho: after today we get our first break from football in a couple of weeks. I'm kinda sad about that, but also kinda not, since it means not having to figure out ways to watch games at my desk or determine if they interfere with work calls. On the other hand, I can always tune into the Copa America, which should be fun, if not quite as close to my heart. Still, it'd be fun to see the USMNT do well.
Here's hoping to a good rest for all the players over these next couple of days, and to a bunch of surprising results in the knockouts!
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