Well, here we are, three games left to go in this tournament. The quarterfinals panned out pretty much as I predicted (despite my heavy hedging), and now we've got Spain v France and the Netherlands v England.
With regard to the round just ended on Friday, I thought it was fascinating that three of the matches went to extra time, of which two went to penalties. France v Portugal was, as I predicted, a dour old game and not really reflective of the levels of talent on either side. I kind of wonder if Portugal is so hooked on how they won in 2016 (three draws in the group stage, a succession of low-scoring matches in the knockouts) that they feel they have to play each subsequent tournament like that. They certainly played a more swashbuckling game in 2022, but were knocked out in the quarterfinals by Morocco, so maybe they think the way to another trophy is this negativity? It can't only be down to Cristiano Ronaldo dragging them down.
France, meanwhile, seem to be operating on this same strategy. Either that or someone is threatening to kill a family member every time they score a goal from open play? Whatever the cause, the squad I identified as the tournament's strongest has been quite disappointing. Which doesn't seem to have affected their ability to win matches, of course.
Spain v Germany was the pick of the round, as I said last time, and I think the actual game bore that out. Germany was surprisingly physical - or at the very least, channeling the spirit of Harald Schumacher - as Toni Kroos took Pedri out of the game, and tournament, with an absolute leg breaker of a tackle early on. Violence aside, both teams showcased their quality, and it's a little bit of a disappointment for me that Germany's tournament is already over.
England v Switzerland... well, it's an improvement over the last few games for the Three Lions. I've been engaged in increasingly weird arguments over the merits of Gareth Southgate, who I agree is tactically limited, but the fact that he's led the team to a third semifinal in four tournaments speaks for itself. If he goes on to win the tournament, he'll have pretty much the same record as France coach Didier Deschamps, which is an odd thing to consider.
Another interesting point about the England game, as mentioned in the various podcasts I listen to, was the confidence the team had in taking the penalties. Each one of England's penalties went in, a marked change over the Euro 2020 final when Marcus Rashford, Bukayo Saka and Jadon Sancho all missed (and came in for horrific racist abuse afterwards). That clearly weighed on everyone's minds this time, but not so heavily that they missed any of their spot kicks.
I do think the Netherlands will make it awkward for England, though. They were the only team to win in 90 minutes, keeping a lid on a rambunctious Turkey side that has lit up the tournament (though not as much as Georgia). I should note here that it was hard for me to root for Turkey as underdogs - I don't hold the Armenian Genocide against all Turks like my mom does, but the fact that one of the players, Meri Demiral, celebrated with a rightwing nationalist salute after beating Austria was a concern. In any case, Turkey was the one remaining surprising team, and it figures that their run would have to end eventually.
I still think Spain is the favorite to beat France, and then to beat either the Netherlands or England in the final. They bounced back from the early injury to Pedri and never fell behind against Germany, which implies a healthy amount of guts and tactical nous. There's a possibility that France tries to strangle the game like they did against Portugal, but my suspicion is that Spain's wingers will be too much for the French.
The England-Netherlands game is harder to call, but I suspect the Netherlands will win. They didn't inspire much confidence in the group stage, but their forward line is working better together than England's. The Dutch defense feels a little more dodgy, but with Harry Kane evidently playing through an injury, it's hard to see how England will score much. Sure, they have Bellingham, Foden, Saka and Gordon, but they also have a misfiring Trippier on the left and Declan Rice isn't quite there yet. Though it might be different if Luke Shaw starts in place of Trippier...
Listen, we can go in circles trying to predict this one. I'll leave you instead with an odd stat that came to me as I was driving today, to wit: Spain has won three Euros, France has two, the Netherlands has one, and England has won none. I don't know if that's a royal flush or whatever (I think you can tell I don't play poker), but it struck me as odd that the distribution should fall out that way. We'll know on Wednesday afternoon who's likely to add to their total.
No comments:
Post a Comment