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Thursday 14 June 2018

World Cup 2018: Merry Football Xmas

I wanted to open my inaugural blog of this World Cup with some pithy comment about this being a once-in-four years event that doesn't turn awful, but the initial images of Vladimir Putin watching the game in the VVIP box with FIFA president Gianni Infantino and (I guess) the Saudi king maybe doesn't support that. But it does make me think that it's kind of a shame the US didn't qualify, allowing the current US president an excuse to meet with his paymaster and benefactor in person (again).

But maybe it's a bit early in the tournament for so much politics. Instead it's fun to note, as others have done already, that these were the two lowest-ranked teams in the tournament, with Saudi Arabia at #67 and Russia at a lowly #70. Which wouldn't bode well for 2022, when the World Cup will take place in Qatar (#98, behind such luminaries as India and Uzbekistan). Though as it turns out, Russia thrashed Saudi Arabia 5-0, so these rankings can perhaps be considered a moving target.

Not that I'm expecting Qatar to do a job on whoever they face in their opener, unless someone even worse, like North Korea or Thailand, contrives to qualify. Though North Korea does have a long and storied history of qualifying for tournaments and beating stronger opponents, so Qatar should hope for a team from Oceania to be able to pick up any points four years from now.

None of this bodes well for 2026 either, by the way. That tournament, shared between the US (#25), Mexico (#15) and Canada (#79), is set to expand to 48 teams. On the face of it, more teams = more football, which should = more fun, but in practice just means more terrible, terrible teams to waste everyone's time. The one positive is that it supposedly means powerhouses like Italy or the Netherlands will have a harder time failing to qualify, but given how my beloved Azzurri have stunk up the tournament since winning in 2006, not making it in this time should be a blessing in disguise, as it forces the Italian FA to figure out how to improve, rather than just papering over the cracks.

The other point about expanding the World Cup by 16 teams is that it doesn't exactly promise a more open tournament. UEFA will likely insist on getting the bulk of the new spots, even though it currently accounts for 14 of the 32 places. You can argue that the level of football is higher in Europe than any other confederation except for South America, but it's hard to argue that any of the teams that failed to get through the playoffs would properly be challenging for the trophy this year.

Coming back to Russia for a moment, I was hearing a lot of chatter about how this was a pretty bad national team. They apparently managed to lose seven matches in a row at one point, coming within an ace of sacking their current coach, and having to recall a 38-year-old Sergei Ignashevich to fill in for a bunch of injured defenders. This is also their first World Cup win since 2002, after having failed to qualify for 2006 and 2010 and posting two draws and a loss in 2014. The last time they made it to the second round was in 1986, when they played as the Soviet Union.

And yet that 5-0 scoreline indicates something. It could be that Russia's better than we've thought, or it could be that Saudi Arabia is worse than we thought. Whichever the case may be, Saudi Arabia, on this evidence, is surely out, though I wouldn't be surprised if they scrape a draw against Egypt, particularly if Mohamed Salah is still far from match fit. Russia, on the other hand, has managed to pick up those important three points, which means earning a draw against Egypt and/or Uruguay will be enough to progress.

However, like the French Revolution, all will become clear in time. I was planning at first to go full-on crazy, and make sure I'm up at 5am for all the relevant games, but today's 8am kick-off has convinced me that I should probably chill out and just catch what I can. After all, I'm now effectively self-employed, so the more I goof around the less time I have to, y'know, earn money. But rest assured I'll still be here with ill-informed opinions, and thoughts stolen from the multitude of football podcasts going on during the tournament.

Truly, this is the most wonderful time of the year.

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