We're coming toward the business end of the tournament, and I can say that it's been a fun one, what with all the dramatic late goals and all the scoring from set-pieces. Today Saudi Arabia took flight and beat the heavily fancied Egypt and their talisman, Mohamed Salah, which would have been impressive if the game had meant anything. And then both Spain and Portugal were held to draws by Morocco and Iran, respectively, paradoxically ensuring that the two European teams went through.
Tomorrow's games are a little more finely poised, with only one of the eight teams, Peru, already eliminated. The big surprise of the tournament could come if Argentina manages to lose against Nigeria, which would ensure its elimination.
It's fair to say that the big teams didn't really get into gear for the first round of games in this stage, with the big teams drawing (as Brazil, Portugal and Spain did), losing (as Germany did) or laboring for an unconvincing win (as in the case of France and England). Normal service was resumed, to an extent, in the second set of games, but the main favorites from before the tournament haven't looked like world beaters so far.
What I found notable was the immediate exit of a bunch of teams from the smaller confederations. As of yesterday, the following teams had already lost two games and been eliminated:
UEFA: Poland
CONMEBOL: Peru
CONCACAF: Costa Rica, Panama
CAF: Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia
AFC: Saudi Arabia
(South Korea isn't on that list because, despite losing its first two games, it still has a hope of qualifying for the next round through an arcane set of tie-breakers)
Looking at that list, with or without South Korea, it's hard not to come back to the discussions in my previous blog about the wisdom of expanding the tournament to 48 teams in 2026. My concern initially was that it seemed pointless to add even more European teams, when they already account for 14 of the 32 teams participating this year. With 55 members, it's the second-largest confederation (after Africa's CAF, which has 56), and it has not only the largest pool of former champions but also the three most recent champions (Italy in 2006, Spain in 2010, Germany in 2014).
It stands to reason that if you add 16 teams to the World Cup, the bulk of those is going to come from Europe, because those teams are more likely to have the stars that global audiences want to see. It's hard to imagine the European confederation, UEFA, allowing for more representation from Oceania, Africa and Asia, when it could get its own marginal teams in, and avoid big names like Italy and the Netherlands crashing out (again).
However, it's also hard to argue that Asia or Africa, or indeed North/Central America, deserve the bulk of the expanded places either, with the performances listed above. Much was made of Morocco's strength before the tournament, in addition to Egypt being highly fancied, but in the end both made barely a ripple and scored two goals each. While I would like to see teams from outside the two main regions (Europe and South America) win the World Cup someday, it's clear that the gulf is as wide as it's ever been, particularly since all the good players throughout the world get snapped up by European teams quicker than ever.
Expanding the tournament also risks devaluing the places, as South America (CONMEBOL) already consists of just ten teams, of which five made it to Russia, with fifth-placed Peru winning its playoff against New Zealand to book its spot. Given that Peru is one of the already-eliminated teams, it's hard to argue that New Zealand would have added much more excitement (though in their defense, when they qualified eight years ago they left after the first round as the only unbeaten team in the tournament).
I suppose that when the World Cup goes to 48 teams, they'll be able to abandon the playoff system, but again, should CONMEBOL get more places? Fifty percent of the confederation qualified this year, so should we just let all ten of them in for 2026 and save them the trouble of qualifying?
These are little more than thought experiments, in the end, and presumably when the World Cup expanded to 32 teams, there were naysayers who thought the quality wouldn't improve. Though it's worth saying that the expanded format hasn't actually led to more competition from the other confederations - so they may have been right...?
PREDICTION CORNER
All of the above may look short-sighted if Mexico goes ahead and wins the tournament. It may be football-induced euphoria, but given their win against Germany, their current pole position in the group, and the fact that they need to win or draw to ensure they progress, they look like going all the way, with a bit of luck from other groups. Specifically, they have to hope that Brazil wins its group, meaning Mexico would face Switzerland next. I can see them beating the Swiss, and then facing either Uruguay or Portugal, and in case Portugal pulls out a Ronaldazo for the ages, I can see Mexico beating them as well, and from there, who knows?
In this scenario, Germany would likely face Brazil in the next round, and probably go out, but beyond that it's hard to guess who else will make it past the round of sixteen. Though I do suspect that Argentina can make it, given they're Nigeria's bogey team. And while I'm hoping that both Japan and Senegal can make it to the knockout stage, I expect Colombia to be too strong for Senegal.
I'm also hoping we continue this run without 0-0 draws! Apparently this is the longest the World Cup has ever gone without one, so it'll be interesting to examine why - whether it's because the defending is so poor or the physical demands are too much.
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